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Mar 11 2016

There Is Still Hope

Watching the also-rans Rubio and Kasich phone it in while Trump ran out the clock at the debate last night might have given the impression that it is all over. The Republican candidate will be a cheesy, obnoxious, irresponsible, openly tyrannical fraud who most of the country already hates, and who will lose to Hillary Clinton in a landslide that will put Democrats back in control of both houses of Congress, spelling long-term doom for the conservative cause. But it’s not over yet. There is still the hope that Trump will win in Ohio and Florida, taking all 165 delegates. That would give conservatism a chance in the person of its greatest living champion, Ted Cruz. Daniel Horowitz explains:

First, while all of the media attention is focused on Ohio and Florida, Cruz should be able to win the other three big states that day: Illinois (69), Missouri (52), and North Carolina (72). … Those three states alone could allow Cruz to net 80-90 delegates over Trump and counter Trump’s 99-delegate haul from Florida or 165-delegate haul from Florida and Ohio combined.

Then comes the good part: a two-man race between the phony conservative and the real one, with Rubio’s spoiler campaign and Kasich’s VP bid finally out of the way (presumably both will drop out after losing their home states certifies the failure of their campaigns).

Throughout this race, the polls and exit polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state, winning by wide margins in many of them. In most states Trump has a floor of about 35-38%, but he has an impervious ceiling in the low 40s.

The national polls show that if Kasich and Rubio exited the race, Cruz would […] rise by about 30 points and Trump would get somewhere between 4-6 points. The latest NBC/WSJ national poll projects Cruz to beat Trump 57-40 in a hypothetical two-way race while the ABC/Washington Post poll has Cruz beating Trump 54-41. …

Not only does the math change once this becomes a two-man race, the entire tenor, narrative, and dynamic of the race changes. In addition to consolidating the anti-Trump vote, Cruz will have the opportunity to win back some (not all) of the conservative voters supporting Trump. Rather than this being a false choice of “an anti-establishment outsider” vs. a gang of boring politicians cheered on by the very establishment figures that have fueled Trump’s rise to begin with, Trump would be countered entirely by the only true anti-establishment outsider in this race.

Horowitz crunches the numbers and concludes that Cruz could clear the 1,237 delegates to win the nomination outright if Trump drives Rubio and Kasich out of the race by winning Florida and Ohio.

At the very least, Cruz stands a good chance of winning a plurality. Stopping Trump at an open convention would tear the party apart and result in defeat even with a different nominee — but only if Trump comes into it with the most delegates.

Despite the rocks the Donald theatrically throws at mainstream media people, their free publicity is responsible for the success of his campaign. They want him to win because he attracts more viewers, being more entertaining than the tedious grownups, and of course because he would get steamrolled by Shrillary in the general election. After Tuesday, the spin will be that Trump is inevitable. But this would only be true if conservatives shamefully abandon their limited government principles like Ben Carson just did and get in line behind him.

conservatives-cruz
We’ll come out of this Valley Forge.

On a tip from JusttheTipHQ.



  • TED
  • Skip

    The opening statement said most of the country hates Trump. If that is so explain why he is and has led the polls since the campaign for a nominee began.

  • Saxon Warrior

    Sorry for being so pessimistic but unfortunately all of this is empty banter. The Democrats are going to have the next president anyway. Voter fraud and downright cheating will ensure they have the next POTUS. Either that or Obama will declare martial law and stay in power.
    We can debate Trump and Cruz until the cows come home but evil people are in power and they will do everything they can to stay in power. Their diabolical mission is not over yet!

  • Pingback: There Is Still Hope()

  • IslandLifer
  • IslandLifer

    It’s dishonest. Plain and simple. Just as the post suggesting Trump campaign manager assaulted a BB reporter. I don’t see a retraction from MB yet.
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/11/trump-presser-ben-terris-misidentified/

  • GhostRider2001

    The Glen Beck and wacky religious right connection is not helping Cruz’s broader appeal. But there is still hope. Trump is sending signals that he might not show up for any more debates after his weak performance last night, thinking the nomination is already in the can for him. This could certainly work to Cruz’s advantage.

  • TheChaoticStorm

    Carson has also endorsed Trump. Most of his supporters feel sucker punched. However, there are a more than a few throwing support behind Trump. Unbelievable.

  • GhostRider2001

    Didn’t I hear from somewhere that Carson was a child molester? Is there anything worse than being called a child molester? Hardened criminals don’t even like child molesters, and what politician would want to be associated with a child molester?

  • Chocolate&Cheese
  • TheChaoticStorm

    That was hyperbole from Mr. Loudmouth Trump himself.

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    Nope you never heard it because it was never said. But you swallow that disinfo willingly. Why is that?

  • Kevin R.

    Yep. The democrats are engaged in the democratic party version of “operation chaos.”

  • Don’t worry, if HRC gets elected, some people might not want to be governed by liar, fraud and felon. And who knows how that will work out?

  • TED

    Without FRAUD there wouldn’t be democRATS.

  • Scott Doty

    Ted Cruz is horrible. Trump 2016!

  • TED

    AMEN!!! The left have learned they can do whatever they want And the Republicans will do NOTHING. You have nailed it!

  • TED

  • TED

    ..

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    Nice article BTW Dave!

  • TED

    ….

  • TED

    Super Tuesday Edition https://www.facebook.com/JimmyKimmelLive/videos/10153939666333374/?fref=nf
    EVEN though they are obviously LYING (how typical left).
    NOTICE the three names mentioned in this video and remember CA’s wouldn’t vote for a Conservative if their ASS was on fire and it was the only way to get water!! THIS has GOT to tell you which side TRUMP is really on! (AND watch all the lefty’s here DENY it!!)

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    The desperation coming from the lips of GOPe talker Kilmeade is hilarious today.
    Pure schadenfreude.

  • Romney the Newt

    During Ben Carson’s endorsement of Trump this morning, he elegantly and eloquently vouched for Donald’s good character. I think Carson’s endorsement will begin to dispel the bullsh*t that Trump doesn’t posses the temperament required to become POTUS.
    Furthermore, I think the Trump campaign has changed gears and from now on into the general, we’ll witness a more presidential Trump. Because of that, we will see his high unfavorable numbers steadily melt away. By the time Nov comes around, the only people that will view Trump unfavorably will be left-libs, the donor class and a small assortment of losers and malcontents.
    .
    TRUMP 2016

  • Wilberforce

    From Steve Deace:

    “Just did an interview with John Cardillo, a radio host in FL, who said on the air that one of Rubio’s top Super PAC guys told him personally that they know they’re done and just waiting for the right time/way to go out.”

  • GhostRider2001

    Because as the news media reported Trump did call Carson a pathological liar and did liken him to a child molester. Trump took him down in Iowa in a most vicious way.
    —————–

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24gx0SMep6A

    http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-ben-carson-violent-criminal-instagram-2015-11

    Trump is such a classy guy.

  • TED
  • Dolan Tump

    A question that stupid doesn’t deserve an answer

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    Rubio did OK in the debate last night. A little desperate perhaps, but he stayed on his memorize soundbites pretty well. Good on the climate change question and fighting ISIS. Will be interesting to watch the establishment switch to supporting Cruz, that is if they don’t outright throw their support to Hillary.

  • TED
  • Dolan Tump

    Who did jerry Falwell endorse? Oh that’s right, Trump.

  • TED

    http://i.imgur.com/C4YR9Yv.jpg
    My My, lookit ALL the LTFT (Leftist Trolls For Trump) congregate!!!

  • Willard the Newt

    That said, the person of Ted Cruz has that je ne sais quoi about him. However Camille Paglia does a good job describing it. Think what you want about Camille, but there is no doubt she in mighty with the pen.

    In an piece titled I was wrong about Donald Trump here’s her take on Ted Cruz:

    “Trump with his pragmatic real-life record is a far more palatable national figure than Ted Cruz, whose unctuous, vainglorious professions of Christian piety don’t pass the smell test. Trump is a blunt, no-crap mensch, while Cruz is a ham actor, doling out fake compassion like chopped liver. Cruz’s lugubrious, weirdly womanish face, with its prim, tight smile and mawkishly appealing puppy-dog eyebrows, is like a waxen mask, always on the verge of melting. This guy doesn’t know who the hell he is—and the White House is no place for him and us to find out.”

    http://www.salon.com/2016/03/10/i_was_wrong_about_donald_trump_camille_paglia_on_the_gop_front_runners_refreshing_candor_and_his_impetuousness_too/

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    He said carson was pathological, then compared it to something else that is pathological. Quite different from calling Carson a pedophile as you intimated.
    Doesn’t matter as Carson voiced his support in glowing terms for Mr. Trump.

  • Wilberforce

    The establishment will never support Cruz as frauds in both parties detest him.

    Oh, they’ll try to falsely cozy up to him and even smilingly co-opt his massage, but it won’t work.

    I’d pay good money to watch their faces if Rubio did the right thing and got out before Florida…

  • TED

    Oh YAH, Charlie was a LEFTY also! http://i66.tinypic.com/2f09ff6.gif

  • TheChaoticStorm

    He had better if he is the nominee. People are repulsed by his thuggish and crass behavior. I didn’t like him long before he started running for President. I still fail to see how he has any form of track record of conservatism. The impression many are getting from him is that he is a tantrum-throwing bully and that he would be a disaster as President.

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    The establishment is already supporting Cruz. He has Jeb’s people and Neil Bush in his corner. As Rubio fades away it will become more apparent. And it will be incredibly instructive.

  • Chocolate&Cheese
  • Chocolate&Cheese

    That is hilarious!

  • Willard the Newt
  • Chocolate&Cheese

    Wish I had tickets!

  • GhostRider2001

    Great example of how the Scots whipped Trump at his own game with the Wind Farm and all the attempted bullying of the home owners surrounding his golf course. “You’ve been Trumped” is a great documentary about the sordid affair.

    http://www.bbcamerica.com/shows/blog/2012/12/anti-trump-farmer-michael-forbes-wins-scotsman-of-the-year-award

    http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/trump-takes-on-a-farmer-and-the-farmer-wins/?_r=1

  • Willard the Newt

    Hilarious!

    Ann Coulter deconstructs the “Trump is Hitler” meme:

    http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2016-03-09.html

  • Chocolate&Cheese
  • Willar the Newt

    I think it will be on the telly.

  • Chocolate&Cheese
  • 762×51

    Yep and with Dr. Carson’s endorsement this morning things have certainly changed. Now I think less of Carson not more of Trump.

  • Occam’s Stubble

    Because “the country” =/= “Republican primary voters.” All the polls of “the country” show him losing to Hillary.

  • Occam’s Stubble

    How do you figure that Cruz would win Illinois? Aren’t the Republicans there liberals who would thus gravitate toward the liberal in the race, Trump?

  • Artfuldgr

    eliote abrams is on cruz team.. he is the one that helped
    bring all that cocaine into the US and created the crack epidemic with north to
    fund the toppling of the contras… and buy weapons for iran… bush pardoned
    him…

    so cruz is great… he has a pardoned criminal on his main team advising how to
    be a establishment man and do what he wants and not get punished..

    he can also get advice from neil bush, who was at the core of the S&L
    scandal with jeb, over silverado… costed the people 1.3 billion (at least
    trump isnt losing your tax money on getting bailed out the way cruz team
    members are)

    i can name a few more on the core team that have such lovely history like
    Woolsey who ripped the people off by lying on forms claiming expenses that
    didnt exist (and more actually)

    go cruz. eh?

    and dont forget, the big elite have now met to get the wealthy people

    the dems and republivans together to stop trump from screwing up their

    plans.

    Sea Island

    As revealed by the Huffington Post, Sea Island last weekend was host

    to a secret conclave at the Cloisters where oligarchs colluded with

    Beltway elites to reverse the democratic decisions of millions of voters

    and abort the candidacy of Donald Trump.

    Among the journalists at Sea Island were Rich Lowry of National Review, which
    just devoted an entire issue to the topic: “Against Trump,” and
    Arthur Sulzberger,

    publisher of the Trumphobic New York Times.

    Bush guru Karl Rove of FOX News was on hand, as were Speaker Paul Ryan,
    Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Lindsey Graham, dispatched by Trump in
    New Hampshire and a berserker on the subject of the Donald.

    So, too, was William Kristol, editor of the rabidly anti-Trump Weekly Standard,
    who reported back to comrades: “The key task now, to …
    paraphrase Karl Marx, is

    less to understand Trump than to stop him.”

    Redeeming itself for relegating Trump to its entertainment pages, the
    Huffington

    Post did the nation a service in lifting the rug on “something rotten in

    the state.”

    What we see at Sea Island is that, despite all their babble about
    bringing the blessings of “democracy” to the world’s benighted, AEI,
    Neocon Central, believes less in democracy than in perpetual control of the
    American nation by the ruling Beltway elites.

    If an outsider like Trump imperils that control, democracy be damned. The

    elites will come together to bring him down, because, behind party ties,

    they are soul brothers in the pursuit of power.

    Something else was revealed by the Huffington Post — a deeply embedded
    corruption that permeates this capital city.

    TRUE OLIGHARCHS FUND THE REPUBLICANS THEY WANT IN EXCHANGE
    FOR SERVICE

    Which is why cruz wont release his records about goldman
    sachs in his earlier campaigns to the FEC

    But since Dave is in for him, dave gave up being a honest
    guy and has been withholding inconvenient articles to change your mind the way
    stalin, hitler, mao, huffington post and so on all do

    Why

    Cause dave and these others deem regular americans are too
    stupid when they don’t agree with dave.

  • Chocolate&Cheese

    Phyllis Schlafly gave Trump an endorsement. She praised him greatly saying he was the most conservative in the race.

  • 762×51

    They are used to voting for criminals so your assumption would be correct. In IL. state government, the best job is Lt. Gov. You just hang out collecting a lavish salary and benefits while waiting for your Gov. to go to prison so you can take over.

  • Artfuldgr

    y7eah.. and charlie, and ayers both wanted to start a race war… then charley went to jail, ayers was guilty as hell but free, and he put obama in to make race relations great

    and if a set of images up like that gets you to change yoru vote
    as its so full of substance…
    you deserve what you get.

    after all, you can also show videos of killers putting their pants on
    and anyone else doing the same

    with the dems, republicans, and oligharchs meeting on sea island to foul trump to favor cruz… well who do you think those guys want and will work with.

    cruz has elliot abrams of iran contra and bush pardon
    and he also has neil bush, of silverado savings and loan (1.3 billion)
    and his biggest doner in the past was goldman sachs but he refuses to let the FEC see that stuff, and this elctio big money from goldman sachs too..
    not to mention his wife and abrams are CFR members and she was a hedge fund lady for Goldman as well

    yeah.. nothing like a man who claims the constitution is good and who then hires a savings and loan scandal man who cost us 1.3 billion in bail outs, a pardoned criminal who created the crack epidemic, a member of the CFR, and sent weapons to iran and tried to overthrow a sovereign government, and of course the other guy woolsey who made false claims to pocket thousands in tax money by lying

    thats sooooo constitutional..

    didnt dave learn anything from noticing the company obama keeps

  • Torcer

    Chocolate&Cheese
    http://moonbattery.com/?p=69769#comment-2562462410

    Since you are going to make that accusation, you had better be ready to back it up with specific FACTS detailing said alleged lies.

    Those Fact will be in the form of EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites

    DO NOT expect others to prove your points for you – you are making the
    accusation, YOU have to back them up, If you cannot , they are
    Worthless.

    Now off you go.. you can expect to see this question repeated back to you UNTIL you answer it.

  • Artfuldgr

    the polls were wrong about reagan
    and a before trump we were comparing the news to pravda
    did they suddenly get honest for non establishment people?

  • 762×51

    You mean the Jerry Falwell who ISN’T a minister? THAT Jerry Falwell?

  • 762×51

    Yeah, I’m sure that Beck’s 20,000,000 listeners won’t have much impact on the election.

  • 762×51

    To date, 65% of Republican voters have voted for someone other than your boy. He can’t win a general election, he couldn’t even win a primary election if not for a wide field of candidates splitting the votes. No amount of psychosis on your part will change that.

    35% of republican voters and 50,000 to 100,000 democrat voters switching to vote for him won’t win against Killary.

  • mauser 98

    cheesy, obnoxious, irresponsible, openly tyrannical ?
    sounds like the imposter in the White Hut

  • 762×51

    Wish I could say that won’t happen but it is entirely possible and even likely.

    This how it plays out though.

    Obama declares martial law and no election = Civil War 2016.
    Hillary wins election and assumes power = Civil War 2017.
    Trump wins election and assumes power = Civil War 2017 or 2018.

    There seems to be a pattern here.

  • 762×51

    An enormous number of candidates has split the vote so he has won a lot but 65% of republican voters have still chosen someone other than Trump. Most of those voters won’t vote for him in the general election so he cannot w

  • TED

    ….

  • TED

    “and if a set of images up like that gets you to change yoru vote
    as its so full of substance…
    you deserve what you get.”
    That also goes for insisting on making the WRONG choice. ENJOY!
    NOW after saying that, I will tell you if TRUMP is The candidate I WILL hold my nose and vote for him – BECAUSE I know even someone CLAIMING to be a Republican/Conservative is 1,000,000 times BETTER than the BEST the LEFT has to offer! SO quit whining.

  • TED

    YOU, asswipe (C&C) attacked me FIRST, YOU also may ENJOY!

  • TED

    Used Car Salesman…

  • TED

    Thanks, I thought so! 😎

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  • RoseD1st

    I think your backing the wrong pony since he blames the victim and free speech.Go to Cruz FB page lots of folks left him over this mess

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