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Sep 26 2012

Why You Should Not Believe the Polls

The general reason is that they are presented to us by a liberal establishment firmly invested in oligarchical collectivism and its primary proponent in this country, Obama. More specifically,

The national polls of the presidential race remain skewed and this is an issue that remains important for following the political process and truly understanding what is taking place. The Gallup tracking poll, which has … over-sampled Democrats in the past, has released its latest numbers today showing President Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent for Mitt Romney. But the non-skewed uses a sample weighted by the expected partisan makeup of the electorate, the QStarNews Daily Tracking poll, shows Romney leading over Obama by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. The difference is the sample or the weighting, the latter result is based on a weight of 37.6 percent of the electorate being made up of Republican voters while 33.3 percent is made up of Democratic voters. The Gallup survey likely bases it’s numbers on an expect turnout, or an “over-sample” of Democrats by a four to six percent margin.

The establishment hopes to buck up Obama supporters and instill in their adversaries a sense of hopelessness. It may also be preemptively laying cover for the massive voter fraud Eric Holder has gone to such lengths to enable. Then there is the intimidation factor that comes with Chicago politics. When Gallup reported results that did not favor the Redistributor in Chief, it was leaned on by the Injustice Department.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls, made up mostly of heavily-skewed polls, shows Obama leading by 3.8 percent. The UnSkewed Average of polls at released today shows Romney leading by 7.8 percent. An average of the two averages would indicate a 1.8 percent Romney lead in the average of both.

As in other elections, we won’t know who is really winning until he has won. Given the likely voter fraud, we may never know.

The polls unskewed.

On a tip from Sam Adams.

20 Responses to “Why You Should Not Believe the Polls”

  1. IslandLifer says:

    As in other elections, we won’t know who is really winning until he has won. Given the likely voter fraud, we may never know.


  2. […] issue that remains important for following the political process and truly understanding what […] Moonbattery Tags: believe', Polls, should Posted in Pundits | No Comments […]

  3. Spider says:

    The main reason not to believe the polls is because of who controls them. The MSM. It’s quite easy for members of the leftist media to go out and ask people questions, and based on who is asking, how the question is worded, and where it’s asked, get the exact response they want. Here in NYC, the MSM is always asking the “person on the street” questions. What they don’t tell you is the fact that the questions are always asked in “ultra-liberal” Manhattan where most of the country’s hard-core leftists and communists live.

    Also, it seems now some Conservatives are getting very upset that the MSM for being so biased and left-wing. Really? Where have these Conservatives been? The MSM has been “openly and aggressively” interfering with America’s elections for decades! Fair elections? LOL!!

  4. Sinister66 says:

    If you go to the individual polling websites most say Obama is leading.

  5. Dr. 9 says:

    Speaking at the UN yesterday, the Muslim-in-Chief accidentlly told the world who and what he truly is. Apparently, speaking in front of his muslim brothers made him feel comfortable enough to finally be honest about something. Of course, he wasn’t concerned that the American sheeple would find out what he said since his MSM was busy making sure the sheeple didn’t see of hear those words.

    “The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam…”

  6. bob says:

    Sssshhhhhh we want the Obomunists to stay home thinking they have it in the bag, and we want the americans to show up and vote for Romney because they think it’s still so close.

    Of course, the howard stern video tells me that a “typical” obamunist won’t even know for sure when polling day is without an ACORN staffer dragging them to the polls and slipping them a $20 just to make sure they remember who to vote for.

  7. KHarn says:

    “Sinister66 says:September 26, 2012 at 11:16 am”

    To face the truth would mean that the regressives would have top admit that they had made a mistake; and that is something that they will never do since it would mean that they were wrong and their enemys were right.

  8. celtthedog says:

    This won’t make me too popular here, but I actually regard Gallup along with Rasmussen as reasonably honest polls. I agree Gallup tends to overstate Democratic support but I think Rasmussen may overstate Republican support. But in either case, if these polls are mistaken, they’re honestly so.
    To me, bogus polls are ones like Pew (Obama at 100%) and any and all polls conducted by the mainstream media as represented by the newspapers and networks. Without a doubt they are trying to throw the election for Obama by depressing Republican turn out.
    But Rasmussen and Gallup? Reasonably honest, if sometimes wrong.

  9. Ghost of FA Hayek says:

    Democrapts have a much larger registered voter base, thanks to Acorn type groups and their GOTV efforts at your local cemetery.
    So as a result, many believe polls which survey likely voters to be more accurate.
    But even here, Democraps can and are oversampled as well
    Ever since the arguably skewed CNN poll of a few weeks back, conservative voters have been looking at the methodology of polling companies with an increasing amount of skepticism. The fact that most polls have used a model that tries to mimic the voter turnout in 2008, when Democrats beat Republican turnout by 7 points (as opposed to presidential elections like 2004, where turnout between the two parties was relatively even), has not improved this state of affairs.

    However, what we ultimately want to know is how many likely voters self identify as Democratic and Republican. We can turn to Election Exit Poll data for a reference: we find that since 1992, self identified Democrats lead self-identified Republicans by an average of 3 percentage points among actual voters. (2008 is a clear outlier) This of course doesn’t even account for how Independents lean.
    Party ID 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 Avg
    Democrat 38 36 39 39 39 37 38 39 35 38
    Republican 35 36 35 37 35 37 36 32 35 35
    Independent 27 27 26 24 27 26 26 29 29 27
    Source: Roper Center

  10. chuck in st paul says:

    while this is basically true, I see the biggest “trick” being done. It involves the ‘independents’. I’ve seen several polls that are suddenly silent that the independents swung +10 for Romney over a month ago. Now the fakey polls are polling independents at 1 or 2% of total polled. Yeah. Right.

    If R&R can keep +5 or better in the independents they’ll walk all over Obysmal. It was them that swung the election for Obysmal and if they cross the line it’ll overcome the cheating advantage the Dims have.

  11. chuck in st paul says:

    celtthedog – September 26, 2012 at 1:13 pm

    Gallup and others are playing god with the chess pieces of this election. By that I mean they are ‘adjusting’ the results to make this look like there’s a real race on here between the candidates when in fact it swung to R&R shortly after the convention and has been slowly increasing in their direction ever since.

    They’re keeping the ball in the air to help sell more “news” ( and more polls ).

  12. Jill says:

    Oh goody, that means that Intrade is getting it all wrong. Currently they have Obama to win by 75:25!

    A $1,000 buy on Romney pays off $4,000 when he wins and he IS going to win isn’t he?

    Buy, buy, buy. Bain stock never paid off that well

  13. Geeknerd says:

    “Dewey Defeats Truman” all over again.

  14. Geeknerd says:

    What worries me is what O’Bama will do between the election and the inauguration. The Clintonista vandalism and presidential pardons will be nothing in comparison to the havoc a petulant sore loser like Barry will wreck. Somebody hide the football!

  15. Ghost of FA Hayek says:

    Oh goody, that means that Intrade is getting it all wrong

    So when the polls are shown to be fudging results, or bullied into compliance by the White House
    we are to fall back on the science of a wager
    BTW is it kosher to bet on a tin god ?

  16. AC says:

    Jill says:

    What a waste of potential. Long-dated gold futures will pay out far better if Comrade Chairman is successfully reinstalled.

  17. Jill says:

    we are to fall back on the science of a wager

    If you really believe the polls are wrong then put your money down. Shorten those odds! (Since kosher refers to diet and food preparation it can’t be kosher, unless you eat your winnings.

    Long-dated gold futures will pay out far better if Comrade Chairman is successfully reinstalled.

    Making 4 times your stake in 40 days, when you know the polls are wrong and Romney’s winning, is better than any gold futures. Gold isn’t going to quadruple in the next 40 days.

    But I understand if you’re scared to put your money where your mouths are. Those polls might just be right after all.

  18. TED says:

    GOOD thing you can’t read Proficiently

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